PM Update: Severe storm or two possible into tonight with higher chances Sunday afternoon and evening

It’s up to 100 degrees in the area, with increased heat and humidity behind a warm front. A few clouds and breezes should linger a little longer towards sunset. Although our main severe storm threat is Sunday afternoon and evening, we cannot rule out one or two severe storms moving into the region from the northwest late in the evening and before dawn.

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Until tonight : Mostly cloudy, very humid, with record temperatures from the mid 70s to near 80 degrees possible. The risk of showers and thunderstorms should be concentrated mainly in the evening and overnight. Lighter showers and storms could continue toward sunrise, but be more patchy.

If some storms do become severe — with damaging wind gusts being the most likely threat — it is geographically more likely for points north of the city and before midnight. Humid locations may see patchy fog near sunrise.

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Tomorrow Sunday) : The combination of heat and humidity likely creates heat index values ​​around 105 degrees. Go slowly, seek shade and air conditioning if possible. After light showers and chances of storms in the morning, our attention turns to numerous likely storms developing after 2 p.m. Some could become violent with devastating wind gusts of more than 90 km/h, as a powerful cold front approaches. Thermometer temperatures peak a few degrees near 95.

The threat of severe weather in the evening diminishes as time goes on, but we may need to monitor the situation until around midnight, especially for areas south and east of the city. Pre-dawn northwest breezes are slowly reducing humidity, also helping temperatures cool into the upper to mid-60s.

Severe storm risk on weekends: Higher probability on Sunday

A cold front arriving Sunday night is a good start to our work week. Before that, we could see severe storms tonight and Sunday. Let’s look chronologically at the overall “marginal” (1 in 5) severe storm risk in This evening:

· What: Remains of a broken grain line

· Hours: mid-evening to around midnight

· Threats in order of probability: damaging wind gusts of more than 90 km/h; one or two torrential downpours; one or two weak and brief tornadoes

· Geography: Predominant problem area north of the city; Storm squall lines drift from northwest to southeast and are expected to fade over time.

Following, Sunday have a “slight” (2 out of 5) overall risk of severe storms:

· What: Line induced by a cold front or two storms

· Hours: mid-afternoon until at least late evening

· Threats in order of likelihood: damaging wind gusts over 90 km/h; one or two torrential downpours; one or two weak, brief tornadoes; one or two reports of large hail

· Geography: Most of the region, perhaps slightly favored along and east of I-95

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