Why You’re Better Off Ignoring the 2024 Election When Investing

Yet under these circumstances, if there is a Trump: expect more and higher tariffs, which could be trade-disrupting and inflationary, and hurt the victory of “consumer discretionary sectors, industry and information technology,” according to UBS, the financial services sector. business. Mr. Trump would likely succeed in cutting taxes and increasing the budget deficit, which would boost the economy but, again, drive up inflation – which could lead to higher interest rates. There will likely be less regulation, benefiting sectors such as fossil fuels and financial services.

If Mr. Biden is reelected but Democrats don’t control Congress, the status quo persists. Expect more regulation (though the Supreme Court on Friday limited the executive branch’s regulatory powers) and higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations than under Mr. Trump, as well as executive orders helping “industrial, materials and utility companies focused on renewable energy and energy efficiency,” according to UBS.

A landslide giving either party control of the White House and Congress would be unexpected and could disrupt markets. Mr. Biden may be able to achieve legislative feats that have been out of reach. The likelihood of increased wealth and corporate taxes is increasing. The chances of positive outcomes for clean energy companies are increasing, while banks and fossil fuel companies will have a tougher time, or so Wall Street thinks.

A landslide victory for Trump would be the most troubling outcome from a purely financial perspective, because he could impose policies that could radically change the way business and life are conducted in the United States. The New York Times covers the plans underway for a second Trump administration. I won’t go into detail here.

Neither Trump’s crush — nor that of the Democrats — was “priced in by the markets,” Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, said in a briefing for reporters. “If we wake up in November. 6 and it looks like we have some sort of single party control of Congress, I would expect an increase in volatility. But, he added, markets should recover quickly. As history tells us, Mr. Saglimbene said the market would refocus on interest rates and corporate profits “once it gets past the election cycle.”

Leave a Comment